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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 5-J.Camarda punts 62 yards to CLE 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 42 for 29 yards (57-U.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model