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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 12-T.Brady up the middle to TB 40 for 2 yards (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model