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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model