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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to CLE 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.73 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP