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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.91 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.17 EP
KICK -2.22 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP