4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 5-J.Myers 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP