Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 34 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

What Actually Happened

(:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to LV 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 84-K.Cole MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 9. 84-K.Cole to LV 9 for no gain (22-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.95 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -2.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model