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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(:51) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to SEA 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model