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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 43

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left end ran ob at SEA 35 for 8 yards (56-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.62 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.46 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model