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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 16

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 5-J.Myers 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.42 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model