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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 57

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model