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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 14-T.Sherfield to HOU 3 for 9 yards (48-C.Harris). HOU-48-C.Harris was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.25 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model