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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 30 – Houston Texans 15

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to HOU 32, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 25-D.King to HOU 40 for 8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model