Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 30 – Houston Texans 12

(11:58) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to HOU 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-T.Smith pushed ob at HOU 33 for 17 yards (4-T.Morstead).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.05 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model