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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 30 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to HOU 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 36 for 11 yards (52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model