Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 30

(8:36) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to MIA 30, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.79 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model