Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 66

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 27

(2:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model