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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model