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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 34 for 15 yards (23-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model