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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 51

Miami Dolphins 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model