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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 93

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 4-D.Chrisman punts 55 yards to TEN 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 46 for 8 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.48 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model