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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback. PENALTY on CIN-51-M.Bailey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP