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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 11-C.Shudak 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model