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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 6

Tennessee Titans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(:42) 11-C.Shudak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP