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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 2-E.McPherson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model