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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 4-D.Chrisman punts 35 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 80-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model