Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 88

Tennessee Titans 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to CIN 40, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at 50 for 10 yards (25-H.Haskins). PENALTY on TEN-42-J.Jones, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.41 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model