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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 4-D.Chrisman punts 59 yards to TEN 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 80-C.Board to TEN 31 for 13 yards (31-M.Thomas; 51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model