4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 28

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 2-E.McPherson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model