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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 11-C.Shudak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model