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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP