4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 35

New York Jets 31 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.75 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model