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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 27

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(11:08) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Claypool (29-L.Joyner).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.12 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model