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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 56

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 16-T.Gill to CHI 30 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 31. 16-T.Gill punts 35 yards to NYJ 21, downed by CHI-45-J.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.38 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP