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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 57

New York Jets 17 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 7-B.Mann punts 56 yards to CHI 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.76 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP