Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 78

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 17

(13:28) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to NYJ 37, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model