4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 39

New York Jets 14 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:17) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.00 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model