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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 67

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to NYJ 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 27 for 16 yards (12-V.Jones; 57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP