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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 18

New York Jets 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-B.Mann to CHI 26 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CHI 26. 7-B.Mann pass incomplete short right [36-D.Houston-Carson].

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP