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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 49

Detroit Lions 22 – Buffalo Bills 25

What Actually Happened

(:45) 14-A.St. Brown right end pushed ob at BUF 42 for 7 yards (21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model