Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 56

Detroit Lions 22 – Buffalo Bills 19

(9:07) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.77 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model