Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 19 – Detroit Lions 14

(1:12) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to DET 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 11-K.Raymond to BUF 35 for 41 yards (41-R.Gilliam).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model