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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 14 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:05) 2-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.04 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model