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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 67

Detroit Lions 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (Shotgun) 30-Ja.Williams up the middle to DET 35 for 2 yards (92-D.Jones; 21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.68 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model