Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 76

Detroit Lions 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(14:15) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to BUF 19, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-57-A.Pittman.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.26 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model