Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 67

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(15:00) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to ATL 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.27 EP
54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model