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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to WAS 18, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 86-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP