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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 27

Washington Commanders 16 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 6-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on ATL-28-M.Ford, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model