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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model