4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 40

Washington Commanders 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(7:18) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to ATL 37 for 3 yards (97-G.Jarrett; 3-M.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.33 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model